Long Range: November Winter Storm Threats

*Please note these opinions are the authors only, and are not considered weather forecasts, just mere long range discussion.*

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Using the CFS model and CPC forecasts, I can make rough estimates as to how November will turn out weather wise, and judging the latest model run output, it looks like the last month of fall may prove more winter like for some.

There are three systems I take some interest in which may form and become winter storms. The first occurs in the October 29th-November 2nd time frame, another one forms in the November 8th-11th time frame, and the last one develops in the November 20th-23rd period. These systems, which definitely might not take shape as predicted this far out, may only be the start of a long winter for some.

Now, for taking a look at each system closer..

October 29th-November 2nd System

Judging the CFS and my gut, this system looks like it will take a traditional Oklahoma-Superior path cutting through the upper midwest around Halloween time. This 'cutter' path is very common during late autumn and early winter.

This storm could bring the first significant snow of the season for some northerners, and thunderstorms and brief warmth for those in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

Temperatures will be supportive for snow accumulations in the Dakotas and Minnesota during Halloween weekend, as this system is sliding northeast from Oklahoma.

If this low keeps the warmth south of Wisconsin and Michigan, those in the upper midwest could experience their first significant snowfall of the 2014-2015 winter season. As we are talking weeks away, and at this point I am unsure how this system will take shape, I cannot make official predictions as to accumulation amounts, however a good 6-12" may be possible from Pierre to Minneapolis if this system takes enough moisture from the Gulf.

Behind the cold front of this storm could follow the first 'arctic blast' of the year for those living in the midwest and Ohio Valley. This will likely happen during the first week of November, quite possibly in the November 3rd-5th time frame.

November 8th-11th System

Another two systems I am watching will form during the second week of November.

 The first system (green) will likely be a Colorado Low which could drop snow east of the Rockies, not entirely unusual for mid November but something snow lovers might wish to look forward to. The yellow system might turn out to be a panhandle hook, similar to the system we discussed for over a week last December. Remember, the "superstorm" potential?

Well, most of these "superstorm"/panhandle hook threats do not turn out, and this definitely is not looking like the best setup, but the potential will be there for some decent snowfall across our midwest states. 

First off, if the current pattern sticks through the next month, the high temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s during the second week of November for those north of Oklahoma and Arkansas and Tennessee. This weather will certainly be cold enough for snowfall..

.. However, it seems likely the snow accumulations will stick to the north. Unfortunately, for those in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, the cold will most likely arrive after the system departs, making an early winter storm potential a probable bust.

After the storm, two rounds of cold air will sweep south. During the November 15th to 18th period, winter's first freezing temperatures may arrive for those in Dallas, northern Louisiana, and Atlanta. These will be short lived, however, and no significant systems appear to be on the horizon for the third week of November.

November 20th-23rd System

The last system I got my eyes on will form around the forth weekend of November. As this is very long range, my thoughts on this are mere speculation and definitely not an official forecast. 

All that I can truly say, at this point five weeks out, is that a low pressure system will likely form during this time frame in the southern plains, possibly sweeping northeast bringing moisture from the gulf with it. This may turn out to be the Ohio Valley's first winter storm event of the 2014-2015 system.

What has caught my attention is the possible southeastern sweep of the cliche polar vortex. Behind this storm may bring the first frigid cold temperatures of the season. 

By 100 hours post storm, during the forth week of November, temperatures dropping below 0 degrees Fahrenheit may dominate the upper midwest! If a pattern like this does turn out, it might be an indicator of a colder than normal winter for those in the regions affected. 

And with cold weather comes the potential for lake effect snow, pretty typical for cities like Cleveland and Buffalo and London, Canada for late November and early December. This storm system and subsequent sweep of cold air from the northwest may just get us into meteorological winter mode one week early. 

In conclusion, I hope I got you guys excited for winter! November always turns out to be an interesting month with interesting weather events, from snowstorms to thunderstorms to the odd hurricane or two. Be sure to stick with TWNS and weather.gov for the latest weather information.

We'll keep you informed, ahead of the storm.

PeterPeter5000